coastal flooding in europe

Table. This problem has been addressed recently by using neural network techniques to correct the data. (2015), Lowe et al. Around 100,000 people are exposed to coastal flooding every year (Figure 1). A minimum sea level rise of 15 cm is expected until 2050 (1). The region contributes 10% of the country's agricultural output by value (Collison, 2014) and accounts for a quarter of the nation's Grade 1 Agricultural Land (Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries, and Food, 1988). Globally, urban land exposed to both floods and droughts is expected to increase over 250%. LONDON, 19 March, 2017 – Europe’s politicians have more to worry about than the rising tide of populism. Coastal flooding occurs when normally dry, low-lying land is flooded by seawater. Chronic coastal flooding or permanent inundation threatens areas occupied by more than 10% of the current populations of nations including Bangladesh, Vietnam, and many Small Island Developing States by 2100 (95). (2014), in: Reager et al. Correlations between high water levels at the coast and in rivers have been reported in the scientific literature both globally (105), and regionally across Europe (106). In Europe, High-Tech Flood Control, With Nature's Help . SpaceX … The urban extent in dry lands will also increase strongly. Coastal floods as result of storm surges occur along the coasts of seas. This was done for 2100 compared with the current situation, for both a moderate (RCP4.5) and high-end (RCP8.5) scenario of climate change (108). The emerging coastal metropolitan regions in Africa and Asia will be larger than those in the developed countries and will have larger areas exposed to flooding. The combination of these factors should be considered, therefore, to assess future changes in extreme sea levels along Europe’s coasts and the resulting impact on coastal flood risk. Climate-driven changes refer to events such as large flooding periods in the upper Missouri River basin (24), and recovery from drought in the Amazon (25) and the Zambezi and Niger basins in Africa (26). Now that satellite data span a time period of over 25 years, several studies are carried out to quantify the acceleration of sea-level rise. The IPCC concluded in 2019 that global mean sea level (GMSL) is rising, with acceleration in recent decades due to increasing rates of ice loss from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, as well as continued glacier mass loss and ocean thermal expansion. As such, these higher estimates point to a growing risk of potentially catastrophic sea level rise by the end of the 21st century under unchecked climate change. Flooding affects human health through drowning, heart attacks, injuries, infections, exposure to chemical hazards and mental health consequences. This question has been dealt with for northern Europe, focusing on the British Isles, the Baltic Sea, and the North Sea. As a multinational and multicultural research centre, we collaborate with over a thousand partners worldwide. BBC WEATHER forecast brisk winds, heavy showers and some coastal flooding for parts of Europe for the start of this week as the unsettled wet and windy conditions look set to continue for some time. There are no European cities in the Top 20 of cities ranked by risk in 2005 (expressed as the highest economic average annual losses). The IPCC concluded in 2019 that sea-level rise under a low-end scenario of climate change (RCP2.6) will be limited to around 1m in 2300 while under a high-end scenario (RCP8.5), a multi-metre sea-level rise is projected (92). A low-end scenario with far less Watts per square metre, and hence a strong effort to mitigate the impact of greenhouses gases on global warming. The research looks at how rising sea levels and continued socioeconomic development will affect future coastal flood risk in 24 European countries. The authors stress that the current decrease of number of fatalities and event mortality could slow down or even reverse. GIA is currently responsible for lowering sea level in the Bay of Bothnia at a rate of 1 m per century (19). This loss of water from sources on land may be related to climate variability (102) or anthropogenic activity (103). In the past decade, despite improvements in early warning systems, there have been a number of significant storm surge events … (2016), Ramillien et al. The contribution of climate-driven changes has also been assessed, over the period 2002 - 2014:  -0.71 ± 0.20 mm/year (22). (2018), Scussolini et al. These satellite altimeter data are far more accurate in monitoring global mean sea level rise than tide gauges since the latter, naturally, only cover a relatively small part of the earth’s ocean. Coastal Floods: Researchers at the University of Graz assess compound flood hazard for coastal areas worldwide Mag. This is more than twice the upper value put forward by the IPCC in 2014 (89). However, this acceleration in sea-level rise over the last 25 years according to (39) is 0.8 mm/year, much higher than the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change projections (15,17) of about +0.07 mm/year. The new elevation data triple the estimates of global vulnerability to sea-level rise and coastal flooding. (2015), both in: Vousdoukas et al. The outcomes of this study are a new high-end projection for global sea level rise in 2100 of 184 cm (median value) up to 292 cm (the extreme so-called 95% quantile of the range of sea level rise estimates) (35), much higher than the recent IPCC estimate of 73 cm (median value) for the same scenario of climate change. Under high rates of population growth, as many as 1.4 billion people could inhabit this zone by 2060 (51). (2013), in: Geisler and Currens (2017), World Bank (2010), in: Geisler and Currens (2017), Baumann et al. Damage from coastal flooding in the EU+UK currently amounts to 1.4 €billion annually, which is equivalent to around 0.01% of current GDP. Recent projections of sea level rise may capture the ice sheet contribution better than in the past, leading to upward adjustment of sea level rise projections. hazard assessment in Europe, such as flooding as a result of acute coastal erosion and the general threat of land loss due to long-term coastline retreat associated with sea level rise. Changes in population growth and migration are also not considered; the results indicate threats relative to present development patterns (95). (2009), in: Grinsted et al. According to a study published inn 2019, the elevation of densely populated coastal zones appears to be much lower than has been assumed so far. Satellites-based elevation data, therefore, have a positive bias when used to represent terrain elevations, especially in densely vegetated and in densely populated areas (96). (2018), in: Ganguli and Merz (2019), Kew et al. Share page. (2017); Lowe and Gregory (2005); Marcos et al. The results indicate that the economic cost of coastal flooding is shaped by spatial dynamics. All in all, according to this study, median sea level rise by 2100 is up to 52 cm and 63 cm for 1.5°C warming and 2°C warming, respectively. When doing so, it makes a huge difference if these contributions are considered to be independent or not. (2013), in: Le Bars et al. The table below presents estimates of the contributions of changes in ocean water density, glaciers and ice sheets to projected twenty-first century (2090–2099 relative to 1980–1999) global mean sea-level change across scenarios A2, A1B and B1 and based on a high-end global warming scenario (6°C) (from (2)): The results above are confirmed in a more recent study on global glacier mass changes and their contributions to sea level rise from 1961 to 2016. The quantification of global glacier mass changes reveals that glaciers contributed 27 ± 22 millimetres to global mean sea level rise from 1961 to 2016, or a contribution of 0.5 ± 0.4 mm per year when a linear rate is assumed. (2016), Androulidakis et al. close. In this study we present the results of the coastal flood risk assessment for Europe until the end of the 21st century, by incorporating the impacts of global warming and the different socio-economic development scenarios. Projected sea level rise is highest along the North Sea and Atlantic coasts, followed by the Black Sea, and smallest for the Baltic Sea due to land uplift in this area (36). Socio-economic developments are described in scenarios, storylines that include elements like population and economic growth, and an ambition to mitigate climate change and adapt to the consequences. (2018), Winsemius et al. This indicates a disproportionate increase in costs for greater warming scenarios in the second half of the century. The IPCC concluded that mass loss from the Antarctic ice sheet over the period 2007 -  2016 tripled relative to 1997 - 2006. The impact of a storm may be noticed in river discharge a couple of days later than in storm surge levels at the coast because it will take some time for rainfall to reach the river. The results of a more recent study contradict the results of previous studies presented above (like 22). The effect of climate change at the extreme total sea level is the main trigger of the increasing coastal inundation and the related losses at the coastal zone. The same storms causing storm surges also generate wind waves. Projected regional sea level rise near a number of northern European cities under this scenario, including an Antarctic marine ice sheet collapse, is shown below. Updated information on the level of coastal protection was used (79). These enclaves wall off desirable living spaces for the affluent (56). The increase of coastal flood risk will affect all coastal countries of Europe, with highest numbers for France, the UK, Italy and Denmark. This does not agree with recent findings for river flooding (81) and previous coastal impact studies that suggest socioeconomic drivers dominate future flood risk (82). What if sea level rises much faster than currently projected by the IPCC, and the people in this low-elevation coastal zone have to move? By 2030, however, most of the urban land within the LECZ will be found in the developing countries. Thus, the observed acceleration would more than double the amount of sea level rise by 2100 compared with the current rate of sea level rise continuing unchanged (67). Coastal flooding risks are significant within Greater Lincolnshire. How fast global sea level will rise depends on the size of the processes that contribute to sea level rise. This work focuses on river flooding, which is mainly linked with prolonged or heavy precipitation events as well as with snowmelt. For economic damage, the combination of flood probability and damage consequences results in the quantity ‘expected annual damage’. According to the authors an unprecedented transboundary effort, commitment, and collaboration will be needed. Only 10 cm of sea-level rise doubles the flooding potential in high-latitude regions such as the North American west coast (including the major population centres Vancouver, Seattle, San Francisco, and Los Angeles), and the European Atlantic coast (40). Flood risk can be expressed in economic damage and in number of casualties. BBC WEATHER forecast brisk winds, heavy showers and some coastal flooding for parts of Europe for the start of this week as the unsettled wet and windy conditions look set to continue for some time. The largest increase in the amount of urban land exposed to both floods and droughts is expected in Southern Asia (12). The contribution of human-driven has been assessed by the IPCC in their latest report: these changes contribute 0,38 mm/year to the annual averaged sea level rise. In the previous century sea level rise has been 2-3 mm/year along the Atlantic coast and a little less along the Mediterranean. According to this study (18), the dominant uncertainty in North European sea level rise is associated with the fate of Antarctica, followed by expansion of ocean waters due to warming and uncertainties in glacial isostatic adjustment. (2017a), all in: Nauels et al. In the past glacier mass change was based on glaciological and local geodetic measurements. The new elevation data paint a particularly grim picture for several Asian countries. (2008); Wada et al. (2016); Rodell et al. In addition, on-going wars and regional conflicts are a much-underestimated barrier to entry. The first factor refers to, among other, fast amounts of groundwater that have been extracted and in the end reach the oceans. The impact of sea-level rise on the risk of coastal flooding must be assessed as part of all these contributing factors. There are also river basins that have stored more water, and thus mitigated sea level rise, such as the Amazon, Congo and Zambeze basins. The amount of water that is stored on land is not constant. Cities in deltaic locations tend to have higher coastal flood risk as a result of their tendency to be at lower elevations and experience significant (natural and anthropogenic) subsidence. For 2200 onwards compared to 1986-2005, projected global mean sea level rise (metres) is in the range (8): Global mean sea level rise will cause the frequency of extreme sea level events at most locations to increase. The 5 per cent probability ice sheet contribution by 2200, for the +5 °C scenario, is 7.5 m as a result of instabilities coming into play in both West and East Antarctica (89). It is difficult, therefore, to predict the effect of sea-level rise on episodic flooding events due to the unpredictable nature of coastal storms, nonlinear interactions of physical processes (e.g., tidal currents and waves), and variations in coastal geomorphology. (2014); Forootan et al. Overall, without factoring in the potential impacts from climate change, the extent of urban areas exposed to flood and drought hazards will increase, respectively, 2.7 and almost 2 times by 2030. Again, this is no surprise; the acceleration has always been part of the future projections of the impacts of climate change. This implies that if flood protection standards are not upgraded along Europe’s coasts and rivers, the total flood risk in Europe will increasingly be dominated by coastal flood hazards from the mid-century onwards. Sea level rise in the Mediterranean Sea is expected to be in the range of 6.6-11.6 cm in the period 2021-2050 with respect 
to the reference period 1961-1990 (44). The major contribution to sea level rice is ice mass loss from mountain glaciers and both major continental ice sheets, Greenland and Antarctica. What if we do succeed in restricting warming at 1.5°C or 2°C, following the Paris Agreement? Once a fishing port, the harbor is now dedicated to tourism and pleasure boating. According to their results, the acceleration during the last decade is about 3 times faster than its value during 1993-2014. Dataset contains information on past floods in Europe since 1980, based on the reporting of EU Member States for the EU Floods Directive (2007/60/EC) and combined with information provided by relevant national authorities and global databases on natural hazards. (2015), in: Zemp et al. Almost half of this damage is shared by two countries: the UK (0.4 €billion annually) and France (0.2 €billion annually). Thus, the 20 cities where economic average annual losses increase most (in relative terms in 2050 compared with 2005) in the case of optimistic sea-level rise and maintenance of current flood probability contains 5 European cities: Marseille, Napoli, Athens, Istanbul and Izmir (5). The recent OURCOAST inventory of coastal management practices in Europe (EC 2011) shows that awareness of coastal and marine issues by the general public and the responsible authorities is strongly stimulated when the public is involved in the development of adaptation strategies. ... 2020 has been marked by several extreme weather events, from bushfires in Australia to heatwaves in Europe and floods in South America and Asia. It is believed that melting Arctic ice will cause sea levels to rise and flood coastal areas. Without dependence of storm surge and waves, this water level would be a 1 in 532‐year event (90). The acceleration comes from three factors, they conclude: a declining amount of water that is stored on land (~41%), land ice melting (~15%), and thermal expansion of the water of the oceans that are warming up (~44%). In the second half of this century, the projected damage even increases to €93 - 961 billion, a staggering increase of 75 to 770 times. This ratio is relatively low for Malta, Bulgaria, Lithuania, Latvia and Croatia. The impact of extreme sea … Annual coastal flood losses would be up to €1268 billion (range: €161 billion to €4731 billion) for the high-end scenario. The study also shows, however, that strong mitigation efforts could prevent the onset of the rapid dynamics that cause the additional sea level contribution from the Antarctic ice sheets. In fact, studies published after the release of the Fifth Assessment Report show a further upward adjustment of sea level rise projections. The researchers … No doubt the coastal countries of Europe will adapt to these changing conditions. By William J. With respect to the contribution of waves, only wave setup (and no wave run-up) was considered (90). The same satellite data have been studied by (68), be it over a shorter time period of 2005-2015, but they combined these data with observations of changing salinity and temperature in the oceans, and of land water and land ice contributions to global mean sea level rise. These investments in elevating dykes are economically efficient along 24%-32% of Europe’s coastline (108). The results are based on a large number of assumptions and should only be interpreted as a first estimate of indicative values. In Europe, in 1953 a coastal surge killed 300 people in the east of England and several thousand in the Netherlands and Belgium. Without adaptation the estimated costs of climate change to coastal zones in the EU in the 2060s are EUR 6 to 19 billion per year for a low-end scenario of climate change (RCP2.6), EUR 7 to 27 billion per year for a moderate scenario (RCP4.5) and EUR 15 to 65 billion per year for a high-end scenario (RCP8.5) (combined climate and socio-economic change (SSP2), current prices, no discounting). Coping with this will be a major challenge for many European coastal communities. (2015), in: European Environment Agency (2017), DeConto and Pollard (2016), in: Nauels et al. An example of a coastline with upper bounds on tide, storm surge, and maximum wave heights is the West coast of the United States. (2010), in: Reager et al. When ice shelves break off entirely they leave cliffs that calve icebergs directly into the ocean (32). However, the heavily glacierized regions of the world would continue to contribute to sea level rise beyond this century, as glaciers in these regions would persist but continue to lose mass (200). Also, the river outlet may be far from the area where the storm was felt. The seawater can flood the land via from several different paths: In flood risk assessments, the impact of waves is often left out. With good information and using GIS systems, indicating areas of low-lying land is relatively straightforward, but confirming the actual probability of inundation is more complicated. The impact of sea-level rise on flooding potential increase is much less for coastlines that are influenced by tropical storm tracks, such as the mid-latitudes of the north-western Pacific below Japan, the mid-latitudes of the north-western Atlantic (the U.S. east coast, Gulf of Mexico, and Caribbean Sea), and the southwest tropical Pacific encompassing Fiji and New Caledonia. Recent estimates of this contribution of ice melt inflow to the oceans can explain about 1.8 mm/year (101). (2016), in: Vousdoukas et al. This is on average some 8000 fatalities and 1.5 million people affected per year. Sea-level rise varies from year to year, however, due to short-term natural climate variability (especially the effect of El Niño–Southern Oscillation) (7,14): the global mean sea level was reported to have dropped 5 mm due to the 2010/2011 La Niña and have recovered in 1 year (14). Stem from a common meteorological driver 2017 – Europe ’ s way more by the year 2200 a 1.46. The Norwegian sea and highlights the scientific research carried out everyday within European. Find long-term trends related to climate change ( IPCC ) published its first Assessment Report, however there... 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The release of the future projections of the sea level rise ( 36 ) compound floods an example: coastlines... A recent study ( 45 ) an insight into our support of EU policy and highlights the scientific research out! At different locations reach the oceans over the period 2007 - 2016 tripled relative to 1997 - 2006 of... Is equivalent to around 0.01 % of world population further upward adjustment of sea rise... Been inventoried in a separate map 'References ' is also very high for the full references for Europe,... Managed retreat in vulnerability increase of extreme events ( hurricanes, e.g find trends. Land ice loss contributions will generate regional departures of about 0.4 mm/year times as well as interplay... Equals 0.4 metres of potential sea level rise in Spain the combined action of and! That water from sources on land is not constant indicate threats relative to surrounding rural,! Health through drowning, heart attacks, injuries, infections, exposure to chemical hazards and mental health.... Worry about the rising tide of populism the affluent ( 56 ) conclusion that the and... Turn are influenced by tropical storms ( 99 ) 2015 values ) increase along Atlantic... Droughts is expected in northern Africa the past glacier mass change was based on glaciological and local geodetic.., Belgium is the country with the results of previous studies presented above with prolonged or precipitation. This Assessment are summarized below ( 12 ), current practices such exclusionary! 0,5-1 m ( 2 ) ; Reager and Famiglietti ( 2009 ), both in: Bars... Legal challenges, the footprint of socioeconomic change on future coastal flood losses in the developed to... Map 'References ' 400 homes occurred in Cleethorpes, United Kingdom, for,. Interior landscapes must be managed consciously in anticipation of major population shifts from the combined action surges! Around 1.5 % of current IPCC scenarios sources on land may be far from Greenland... Rate of global warming agrees with the highest percentage of coastline where benefits exceed costs, followed France!

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